A handful of state and local elections will provide our first public rating of Democratic socialism in a few days. Within months of sweeping into power in both House and Senate, as well as the presidency, the Dems have evoked the largest citizen protest movement in our country’s history. Soon we’ll see how that translates into political capital at the polls.

Two states are holding gubernatorial elections — New Jersey and Virginia. Both races are a study in how a political party can shoot itself in the foot.

The race for governor of New Jersey has been particularly tacky, thanks to Democratic candidate and incumbent governor Jon Corzine, who is running for a second term. Instead of campaigning on issues, he has denigrated his Republican opponent for being overweight. Television ads show footage of the portly Chris Christie struggling to get out of a car, while the narration accuses him of “throwing his weight around.” Since our country is considered to be the most obese in the world, this tactic may backfire.

Earlier this week, the Rasmussen poll showed challenger Christie leading Corzine 41% to 39%. But in New Jersey, Democrats have a history of coming from behind. Public sentiment is against Corzine by much greater margins, and that should afford an overwhelming victory for Republicans. But another Republican, Chris Daggett, is running as an independent, and siphoning off 11% of the vote, according to the poll. So in a totally favorable political environment, Republicans may still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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The situation in Virginia is much better for Republicans. The Democratic primary yielded the party’s worst possible candidate as the nominee. In the first contested Democratic primary in twenty years, state senator Creigh Deeds defeated the personable former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former state delegate Brian Moran. Subsequently, Deeds has made every mistake in the public relations manual. No one has a clue what he stands for, because his ads are all negatives about his opponent. He is paying big bucks to provide name recognition for the other team.So in Virginia the Republican, former state attorney general Bob McDonnell, will likely sweep to victory. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows McDonnell holding a seven point lead, with McDonnell at 50% versus Deeds at 43%. But here’s the interesting part — poll respondents rate Obama as a negative for Deeds:

McDonnell also has been trying to link Deeds’ fortunes to those of President Obama. Deeds last month seemed to distance himself somewhat from the president but now says he hopes Obama will come to the state to campaign for him.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Virginia voters say Obama’s performance is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote, with 36% who say it is very important.

The bad news for Deeds is that just 23% say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat if Obama campaigns for him in Virginia. Forty-three percent (43%) say it would make them less likely to vote for Deeds….

Even as Obama joins Deeds for a final campaign swing in Hampton Roads, the Obama team is spouting negatives about their candidate, in hopes of minimizing the appearance that the upcoming loss reflects negatively on Obama:

Sensing that victory in the race for Virginia governor is slipping away, Democrats at the national level are laying the groundwork to blame a loss in a key swing state on a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign that failed to fully embrace President Obama until days before the election….

A loss for Deeds in Virginia — which for the first time in decades supported the Democratic presidential candidate in last year’s race — would likely be seen as a sign that Obama’s popularity is weakening in critical areas of the country. But the unusual preelection criticism could be an attempt to shield Obama from that narrative by ensuring that Deeds is blamed personally for the loss….

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Then there’s the race in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The seat was just vacated by John McHugh, a moderate Republican who left to become President Obama’s Army Secretary. The special election to fill the vacancy pits so-called “moderate Republican” Dede Scozzafava against Democrat Bill Owens, in a race that Scozzafava was favored to win.  But in New York there are robust minor parties that can make a big difference. You may recall that Jim Buckley was elected to the US Senate in 1970 running on the Conservative Party line only in a three-way race. And this year’s conservative candidate in the 23rd, Doug Hoffman, is rising in the polls, pulling support from Scozzafava. Not only that, Hoffman has picked up some serious Republican endorsements, including former senator Fred Thompson and former House majority leader Dick Armey. And this morning’s bombshell — Sarah Palin endorsed him.What is nationally interesting about this localized race is the forecast of change in the traditional political landscape. In a terrain dominated by two parties, Republican and Democrat, political professionals must now account for a groundswell of independents loyal to neither. There has always been concern about the “independent vote,” but the tea party movement has brought it to prominence as never before. And Doug Hoffman is regarded as the “tea party candidate.”

More than that, like Buckley before him, Hoffman has a shot at winning as a third party candidate. Registration in the district gives Republicans a slight edge over Democrats, but it swings. The district went for George Bush, but then went for Obama.

At first glance, this looks like a race where the Democrats are united, and Hoffman is splitting off the conservative segment of the Republican vote. But looks can be deceiving. New York has long had four viable parties — Republican, Democrat, Liberal, and Conservative. And New Yorkers tend to divide along liberal/conservative lines. Seen this way, the race can be viewed as splitting the liberal vote between Owens and Scozzafava, with Hoffman getting the other half. All that is needed for Hoffman is enough money and name recognition to pull him into the mainstream. And the “tea party” movement has come on strong to give him that, with donations pouring in from the whole country.

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The obvious path to a Republican win in New Jersey would be for Chris Daggett to drop out. That won’t happen, and we can only hope that Christie can hold his slim lead and win anyway. But yesterday, Michelle Malkin proposed an interesting solution to the split vote in New York’s 23rd. She suggested that the Republican should withdraw.

It’s time for the GOP to cut bait on radical leftist Dede Scozzafava. Dump Dede and quick. I repeat: Can the Republican establishment hear conservatives now?

Michelle follows this with a list of links to other publications calling for Scozzafava’s withdrawal. Quite a chorus! And a first election time look at “tea party power.”